Flutter Anticipates Significant Market Share Growth in Brazil
Macquarie projects that Flutter, a NYSE-listed group, could increase its online market share in Brazil by 150% over the next five years, growing from 10% to 25%. This forecast was initiated on December 11th.
Senior gaming analyst Chad Beynon highlighted that Flutter Brazil’s growth will be driven by Flutter Edge technology, which “has demonstrated accelerating market share gains rapidly in new markets.”
Brazil is expected to contribute an additional 1% to the group’s international market share gains between 2026 and 2029. The business arm, including the NSX Group, is currently valued at approximately $1.3 billion, according to Macquarie’s estimates.
Beynon stated that this represents approximately $12 per share in value and $9.5 in valuation creation.
The analyst praised Flutter for successfully managing risks in mergers and acquisitions (M&A) and securing a top-two position in the US through its FanDuel brand. He estimates Flutter’s combined global market share to be approximately 16%, including 35% in the UK and Ireland, 33% in North America, 40% in Australia, and 5% internationally.
Globally, Flutter is expected to reach around 20% market share by 2030, partly due to recent acquisitions and Flutter Edge technology.
At its Capital Markets Day on September 25th, the operator reported that the acquisition of the Brazil-focused NSX Group helped secure 11% of the total online betting market share in Brazil, also including its Betfair brand.
In September, Flutter acquired a 56% stake in NSX for $350 million. The deal is expected to be completed by the second quarter of 2025 and includes Brazil’s leading betting brand, Betnacional. Following confirmation of the deal, the operator established its Flutter Brazil unit.
Flutter Confident in Brazilian Market Potential
During Flutter’s Q3 results, released on November 13th, CFO Rob Coldrake expressed confidence in the progress made in Brazil.
“We are excited to leverage what we believe is a really promising market with lots of opportunities,” he said.
The launch of the regulated betting market in Brazil is imminent, with a date set for January 1, 2025. Flutter was among the first to apply for a license from the new betting regulator in the summer. However, the sector has faced significant opposition in the country, following the release of several studies suggesting that betting is seriously impacting the population’s consumption and well-being.
More Mergers and Acquisitions on the Horizon?
In his note, Beynon also believes that more mergers and acquisitions are on the horizon for Flutter in Latin America. He said the group may consider “more transformative M&A” in the US, seeking new opportunities for FanDuel to enter more retail gaming and lottery operations.
Flutter has made a series of acquisitions this year. In September, it announced to the market that it had acquired Playtech’s Italian B2C business, Snaitech, for €2.3 billion. The addition of Snaitech and the NSX Group is expected to add approximately 2% to Flutter’s international market share.
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