Impact of Dutch Government Collapse on Gambling Policy
The PVV party has withdrawn from the coalition, seemingly leading to the fall of the Dutch government. The cabinet will remain in a demissionary capacity after the collapse, but what does this mean for plans regarding gambling policy and gambling tax?
On Tuesday morning, PVV leader Geert Wilders posted a striking message on X: ‘PVV leaves the coalition.’ The largest party in the House of Representatives wanted to implement ten additional asylum plans, but the other coalition parties did not agree, according to Algemeen Dagblad. The leaders of the other coalition parties suspect that Wilders was aiming for a collapse of the cabinet.
What Does a Government Collapse Mean for Gambling Affairs?
Due to the withdrawal of the PVV, the Schoof cabinet appears to be collapsing. Once Prime Minister Schoof offers the cabinet’s resignation to the King, the next steps will need to be considered. An attempt can be made to form a new coalition without elections, or new elections can be called, as in 2023.
In 2023, the Rutte IV cabinet fell on July 2, after which the cabinet’s resignation was offered on July 7. More than four months later, on November 22, 2023, the new elections were held. In the meantime, the then-cabinet remained in a demissionary capacity for a year, until the Schoof cabinet was sworn in on July 2, 2024.
If new elections are needed again now, this cabinet will also be declared demissionary. Ministers such as State Secretary Teun Struycken (Legal Protection) and State Secretary Tjebbe van Oostenbruggen (Finance) will remain temporarily responsible for the dossiers in their portfolio.
However, they cannot simply continue their plans as originally announced. The various standing committees of the House of Representatives must vote on whether these documents and reports are considered controversial.
Once something is declared controversial, the relevant part is put on hold until the new cabinet is appointed. The new cabinet can then take up the subject again and fill it in according to its own vision.
New Policy Vision and Gambling Tax
The fall of the cabinet may also have consequences for some important plans within the gambling dossier. In February, State Secretary Struycken shared his vision on gambling policy. In his policy response, he announced several major measures to be implemented in the coming years.
Whether the State Secretary will have the opportunity to implement this vision remains to be seen. The standing committee on Justice and Security will have to determine whether the policy response is declared controversial or not.
For the gambling tax, this is slightly different, because the tax increase is included in the already adopted tax plan. The demissionary cabinet can no longer change these plans. A new cabinet does have the option to revise these plans if necessary.
“What a cabinet collapse means for gambling policy is not yet known. More clarity is likely to emerge in the coming weeks as the House of Representatives votes on which topics are declared controversial.”
– Birgit de Bruin, spokesperson for the Ministry of Justice and Security
Reactions to the Fall of the Cabinet
Justin Franssen
Gaming lawyer Justin Franssen of Franssen Tolboom Advocaten, who has experienced several cabinet changes and collapses in his career, emphasizes that a cabinet collapse almost always leads to delays. Even when a dossier is not declared controversial, decision-making processes usually take longer.
Franssen considers it likely that the implementation of State Secretary Struycken’s policy vision will be delayed. This does not necessarily apply to the planned increase in gambling tax per January 1, 2026. According to Franssen, there is little time left to stop this increase. Because the measure is already included in the national budget and a demissionary cabinet remains competent to implement such budget agreements, it is likely that the increase will simply go ahead.
Bert Bakker
Former Member of Parliament Bert Bakker expects that gambling policy will hardly be affected by the events. Bakker does take into account possible delays in implementing the plans, but this would almost always be the case, even without the fall of the cabinet.
According to Bakker, Struycken can continue his plans for the time being, also because these were widely supported by the House of Representatives.
“The proposals he is preparing must then be consulted with the market, then you get a new version, then advice from the Council of State (only with a ministerial decision is that not necessary), and then the House of Representatives. Then we are well into 2026, and then it depends on the progress of the negotiations on a new cabinet. On the other hand: Struycken’s proposals were widely supported, so even then I can imagine that the House of Representatives will simply start the treatment.”
– Bert Bakker, lobbyist Meines Holla & Partners
VNLOK
According to Björn Fuchs, chairman of industry association VNLOK, it is too early to think about the possible scenarios:
“It is too early to draw conclusions from this morning’s political events. As soon as it is clear what consequences these have for the gambling market, we can give a comprehensive response.”
“For now, we emphasize that VNLOK would like to see policymakers and administrators take careful and proportionate steps with regard to the gambling dossier.”
“In the area of the new policy vision and the gambling tax, there are sufficient facts on the table that call for necessary reflection. Motions have recently been adopted for this and various substantive investigations and evaluations are underway.”
– Björn Fuchs, chairman VNLOK
Willem van Oort
iGaming Consultant and organizer of the Gaming in Holland events, Willem van Oort, says that he still had some hope that the second increase in gambling tax would be reversed, something that now seems no longer possible:
“I secretly hoped that the second increase in gambling tax per January 1, 2026 could still be reversed. Some Members of Parliament seemed to be listening to this after discussions with gambling providers. But then this adjustment of the budget plans would have had to be initiated at very short notice. I hope I’m wrong, but I don’t really see that happening now. I therefore think that the land-based sector in particular is facing a tough year.”
– Willem van Oort, Gaming in Holland
Just like Bert Bakker stated in an earlier reaction, Van Oort also expects that Struycken’s plans for gambling policy will simply be implemented:
“Regarding State Secretary Strucyken’s plans to significantly amend the Remote Gambling Act, I don’t think much will change. Concrete proposals would not be made before 2026 anyway. Moreover, Struycken’s draft plans have broad support in the House of Representatives. That will all continue. I suspect that we can expect some delay, but the timeline as promised by the State Secretary was already quite ambitious from the start. All in all, the fall of the cabinet will not have that much impact on this.”
– Willem van Oort
Niels Meloen
Niels Meloen of Borgen Tax expects that the possible fall of the cabinet will make it more difficult to stop the tax increase, because legislative changes are needed to stop the upcoming increase:
“The Tax Plan 2025 Bill includes both the increase from 30.5% to 34.2% per 2025 and the increase from 34.2% to 37.8% per 2026. This bill has been adopted by the House of Representatives and the Senate, which means that the increase in the KSB rate per 2026 is legally established. This means that the tariff increase will be implemented automatically and that no additional legislation or approval is required for this. I expect that the demissionary status of the Cabinet will ensure that preventing the tariff increase will be difficult rather than helping practice. Amending the already adopted law requires a new bill to be approved by both the House of Representatives and the Senate. The demissionary status of the cabinet makes it less likely that changes to this legislation will be made in the short term.”
– Niels Meloen, Borgen Tax
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